Monday, May 22, 2006

A new strategic challenge has emerged for the Indian IT industry. From Financial Times;

Drought forecast for India's technology
reservoir


By KHOZEM MERCHANT
Published: May 4 2006 03:00 Last updated: May 4 2006 03:00

The supply of engineering graduates in Bangalore is struggling to keep up with demand. So much so, it is said, that one influential software company is considering setting up its own university. No prize for guessing which employer, even if the tale is, for now, flattering rumour. Infosys Technologies already runs a "leadership" training centre in Mysore, which is equipped to train 4,500 graduate recruits and 500 additional "future leaders" at any given moment. The issue of the supply of talent hung over this month's announcements of annual results from Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Wipro, which together account for a third of the revenues of India's booming IT industry.

All revealed another year of scorching growth, adding 30-35 customers each quarter. But when talk turned to sustainability, the words "human capital" loomed.
This trio of IT giants recruited more than 60,000 staff last year, mostly from Indian colleges. TCS says it will add 30,000 this year, and Infosys 25,000.

But where will they find the recruits? India's six distinguished institutes of technologies may be admired worldwide but only a fraction of graduates find leadership roles, the rest becoming foot-soldiers remotely managing the technology infrastructure of, say, a UK utility from Bangalore.

India may produce 2.5m graduates a year, but only 350,000 are in suitable engineering or IT-related jobs. Moreover, a recent report by consultants McKinsey and the IT industry group Nasscom, found that only a quarter of engineering graduates were armed with the appropriate skills demanded by software companies. India was lagging behind rival employment markets such as Malaysia and Hungary.

While India's IT industry employs about 1m people, some 2.3m IT workers will be required by 2010 if the current growth rate continues. Supply shortages could lead to a shortfall of 500,000 - a gap that will threaten India's global lead in the technology service market.

S Padmanabhan, head of human resources at TCS, which last year received 300,000 graduate-level applications for a job at Asia's largest software services company, is in no doubt about the importance of his task: "Human resources is the most strategic issue facing the technology sector," he says.

Similarly, T V Mohandas Pai, who holds the same role at Infosys, says: "The decade ahead will be one of unmatched focus on human resources. The challenge is immense."

So what are the two most important human resource executives in India doing to support their companies' growth?

The TCS chief talks of "widening the pool", which in practice means looking beyond the principal colleges such as the blue-chip Indian Institute of Technologies (IIT), as well as recruiting from second-tier cities such as Indore and Bhopal.

He admits however that "looking wider and deeper" is not without its problems. First there is a large gap in quality between the faculties at the IIT and the more run-of-the-mill engineering colleges. The standard of teaching facilities also varies greatly.

The upshot for TCS is increasing contribution to the less good colleges. The aim is to "make the entry level experience a homogeneous one," says Mr Padmanabhan. TCS not only requires a high standard of applicant, but it needs all of them to be at the same level of attainment. That matters when you are recruiting on the scale of TCS - anything else means more time and money for ironing out problems with accepted applicants.

"The variations are wide," he says. "Within the top 10 per cent the standard is consistent. But the rest requires greater investment, notably in soft skills such as sales and communications." TCS does not confine its recruitment to India either - 6.5 per cent of its staff is non-Indian. It has centres in China, Hungary, Uruguay and North America - about 12 per cent of the 30,000 recruits in the year ahead will be from outside India.

Infosys also employs this strategy. In June, 100 graduates taken from US arts and engineering colleges will arrive at Infosys's Bangalore campus for a year-long training programme, with another 200 from the US joining the programme in the coming months.

The company has already trained 100 Chinese students - mostly to build bilateral ties - and a couple of hundred from Mauritius. It is another bold move for an organisation regarded as having the most sophisticated training infrastructure in India. "They have simply accepted that the only way to [manage attrition and growth] is to train on scale and quality," says an external Infosys director.

Mr Pai's recent appointment as head of human resources is a measure of how seriously Infosys takes the issue of finding talent.

He saw his star rise as finance director when he was the architect of Infosys's listing on Nasdaq, the US exchange - the first by an Indian IT company.

Going abroad will, however, raise the company's recruitment costs. For example, Infosys spends $5,000 to train a graduate recruit over a 14-week programme. Training an overseas recruit has run up bills 3-4 times greater because most enter the company at a higher base level. Infosys trains overseas graduates in India because training in their home territories takes more time and is costlier. It seems it is also easier to impart "Infosys values" in Bangalore, India, rather than in Buffalo, New York.

Two years ago, Infosys had $1bn in sales and 25,000 employees. This year it has already broken through $2bn in sales with 52,700 staff and it is on track for sales of $2.8bn with an expansion of its workforce to 77,000.

So will it set up a university? There's no official word, though here might be a clue: frustration with the lack and expense of hotel rooms in Bangalore have already led it to build a hotel on its campus.

During the dot-com boom, it was not unusual to see multiple full-page advertisements by IT Training companies, that too in leading national papers. NIIT and Aptech are two best known firms, while some like Zap folded up even before students could complete the courses they had paid for. This was the time when BE/BTech was not a commoditized qualification like it has become.

In the post-2001 period, this industry collapased as the job market for freshers soured. More importantly, the number of engineering colleges in the India exploded, giving students a much more formal and recognised qualification. Obtaining a seat in BE/BTech degrees is not difficult anymore for even the average student, even though gaining admission into the top colleges has never been tougher.

At the way things are going, IT companies have no choice but to look at other courses in India - B.Sc and BCA and other three year courses for entry level hires. MCA is already an established professional qualification. Trouble is while BCA and B.Sc (CS/IT/Elect) students might get sufficient skills as part of the curriculum, BComs and other BSc.s are not employable. Lets see if training companies can capitalize this opportunity.

Tuesday, May 16, 2006

An interesting study on the surveys;

Quality in Management Education - A Meta-Analysis of Recent B-School Surveys
By Arnab Kumar Laha
Download the PDF at: http://www.iimahd.ernet.in/download.php?downloadid=263

Conclusion;

In this paper we have analysed the methodology of some of the recent B-School surveys. We found several discrepancies in the methodology likeinconsistencies in the parameters and their weights used for measuring quality of management education, non-participation of a large number of managementinstitutes, use of non-validated data and a summative scale for ranking and categorization purpose.

The role of AICTE is vital for deciding on theparameters to be used for measuring quality of management education,ensuring participation of the management institutes and validation of the dataprovided by them.Instead of using a summative scale, which reducesmultivariate data into univariate data, it is recommended that multivariatestatistical procedures like cluster analysis be used to determine the categoriesof the different institutes. Instead of deciding on the number of categoriesarbitrarily, it is appropriate that the data itself dictates the number of categories present. We have shown the use of Beale's criterion in the context of K-meanscluster analysis for this purpose.The use of ranking is not recommendedbecause of large variation witnessed in the different surveys.

A properly conducted B-school survey will immensely benefit the stakeholdersof management education like recruiters, students, guardians, etc, in choosingthe "right" B-schools.

Monday, May 15, 2006

Rankings cometh!

Its that time of the year again.

Hundreds of thousands of young Indians will be joining universities in the next two months. Some are fresh from school, others are pursuing masters or research. India being a large and diverse country, there is a general lack of information among both students and parents. Word of mouth advice is still important, but given the proliferation of private institutes and aggressive advertising students and parents look towards Rankings to provide an impartial and fair view.

It is a running argument that rankings are bogus and dont reflect the true realities. In India rankings are yet to mature, hence every media house wants to jump onto it with a view to the future.... one day afterall some rankings will emerge as the authority, much like USNews and Business Week rankings are seen in the US.

There are three ranking systems available;
  1. Annual surveys by various magazines such as Outlook and India Today
  2. Advice by various CAT coaching centres
  3. Advice by consulting firms such as Mercer and Hewitt
1. Same time last year I made a list of 'reputed' B-School surveys by media houses:

Business India (MaRS)
Business Today (AC Nielson)
Business World (Cosmode)
Outlook (C-FORE)
All India Management Association (IMRB)

The first influential rankings to be published is the annual India Today/Business Today survey, which I expect to come out next month. Note that the publications routinely change their research agencies. So dont be surprised if AC Nielsen rankings come out in a different vehicle this year. The other B-School rankings follow on till November (the CAT month).

2. Coaching centres thru their large franchise network are a signficant influence on MBA aspirants. Students spend a considerable time at the institutes interacting with the faculty there, so its natural for them to have influence over students.

Since these institutes dont conduct their own research, their advice is based on a composite score derived from the surveys listed above.
CareerForum (http://www.cflogic.com/)
IMS (
http://www.imsindia.com/)
Career Launcher (
http://www.careerlauncher.com/)

3. While students can rely a lot more on media, word of mouth, and actual visits to shape their opinion, corporates recruiters are often guided by the influence of colleagues who are alumni of their various colleges. Rankings by BT, BW have their influence too. However, when they need professional opinion they can approach HR consulting firms like Hewitt and Mercer.

Saturday, May 13, 2006

The Harvard Mafia

The role that alumni play in a B-School's progress is well known in the MBA community. Students are cognizant of the jobs that alumni bring to campus, and to the alumni community at large. Interestingly, Harvard alumni has been acknolwedged for their excellent networking, and are colloquially known as the "Harvard Mafia".

Friday, May 12, 2006

Conflict of Interest

In my MBA final year viva, the panel was led by an industry veteran, a 1974 passout of UBS. The gentleman was into marketing of industrial inputs.

During the course of my viva, I was asked to identify the "conflict of interest" that occurs between the vendor of a product or service and the customer in a B2B or industrial scenario. Mercifully after a little beating around the bush I answered the question to his satisfaction.

The conflict of interest arises due to the customers ever increasing expectations from the service provider. Modern managers realise the importance of delighting the customer, but how do you ever satisfy a customer who keeps raising the bar higher? Retaining an existing client is much more crucial than finiding a new one, we are told. But dealing with a purchaser/buyer whos primary motive is push down his costs (naturally) can be a tricky situation. If things get nasty every opportunity might be used to deride your project team's work, hoping to reduce the quotation of your firm's next bid with company.

So whats the solution? It lies in laying down the deliverables of your project on paper before the work starts, nomatter how much time and heated discussion in needs. In the end the parties should have an understanding that the vendor's performance would be based on how well he has fullfilled those deliverables and none other.

"The Infosys Bubble"

I just came across this though provoking blog post "The Infosys Bubble". Quoting;
Infosys needed 52,000 employees to generate a revenue of approximately US$2 Billion, that averages to US$40,000 per employee. Assuming perfect linearity,
they will need another 25,000 employees to add the next billion.

....

Have a great silver jubilee, Infosys, because looking forward, it does not look too exciting. Let me end with a quote by Oscaar Wilde, “Everything popular is wrong”.

Hmm, if the author's premise holds, then to be a USD 10 Billion dollar company Infosys will have to grow to a strength of 250,000 (woah!). But then Accenture is making more than that already with less than 150,000 employees, so what exactly is Accenture doing differently? The answer would tell us where Infosys (and TCS and Wipro for that matter) might be heading. Either that or Srikant's premise better not be sound.

"The Race to $10 Billion"

When I saw the cover of the latest Business Today (May 21, 2006) screaming "The Race to $10 Billion", I picked it up from the newstand rightaway.

The Business Today (BT) cover story stacks up the big three against each other in their growth to USD 10 Billion in revenues. BT predicts that the three can reach this milestone by 2010, or even sooner. But that’s saying something, because the combined revenue of Indian IT industry is expected to be USD 60 Billion in 2010, per NASSCOM-McKinsey assessment. This means that these three companies – Infosys, TCS and Wipro would account for around 50% of the revenue all by themselves!

TCS stands out for its ability to win big deals, and presence in multiple verticals. Infosys has a mega brand and superb marketing, great margins but lacks capability in a number of verticals. Wipro scores high on innovation and the knack for inorganic growth.

Methodology. The three firms were rated on a ten point scale on ten parameters by BT. Weights were assigned to each factor based on industry expert advice. A weighted average revealed the composite ranking.

The ten parameters are:
  1. Financial Performance
  2. Portfolio of offerings
  3. Ability to attract and retain talent
  4. Execution abilities
  5. Quality of clients
  6. Scalability
  7. Vision
  8. M&A Ability
  9. Innovation
  10. Systems and Processes
Result. Based on the total score BT concludes that TCS (9.29) is most likely to reach the target first, followed closely by Infosys (9.25). Wipro (9.085) comes in third.

Thursday, May 11, 2006

The comparison of India's Big Three IT powerhouses namely TCS, Infosys and Wipro Technologies is something that always engages me. Theres a big cover story in the latest Business Today on this.... before I review that, here are a couple of older pieces;

"Indian IT sector: Who's the best?" (August 30, 2004)
http://www.rediff.com/money/2004/aug/30perfin1.htm

The report succintly lists out differences between the three majors with the help of numbers (uh oh) ;-) .

"The billion-dollar comparison" (June 28, 2004)
http://ia.rediff.com/money/2004/jun/28bill.htm

A significant portion of the article explains the effect of fixed priced contracts on TCS margins.

Note that both articles a bit dated.

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